Environmental Drivers of Conflict: A Somali Case Study
20TH APRIL 2025 | CLIMATE & CONFLICT | EAST AFRICA
Written by Hope Johnson
Introduction and Contextual Analysis
The geo-cultural landscape in Somalia is one that has demonstrated a historical interconnection between climate insecurity and conflict, creating a clear interdependence between environmental vulnerability and human lifestyles. Somalia, therefore, presents a complex case whereby climate change and chronic conflict intertwine to reinforce cycles of socio-political fragility. Located in the Horn of Africa, Somalia is characterised by arid and semi-arid climate styles, and as a result is prone to drought, flood and desertification (Ali et al., 2023). The combination of this makes it one of the most climate vulnerable countries (UNEP, 2024). The country’s ecology, being marked by recurring and increasing climate phenomena, culminates to affect the population’s heavy reliance of pastoralism and agriculture (UNEP, 2024). With most of the population dependant on subsidence farming and climate dependent industries, these increasingly common climate shocks have immediate and devastating effects on food security and rural stability (NUPI, 2021).
Overlaying this environmental precarity is a longstanding and turbulent relationship with instability, stemming from conflict exacerbated by the legacy of colonial rule, Said Barre’s dictatorial regime (1969-1991) and the subsequent fall out and political fragmentation. Since the fall of Barre’s regime, Somalia has experienced prolonged instability, marked by civil war and the fragmentation of authority (Eklöw and Krampe, 2019). This is aggravated by the rise of non-state actors and militant groups such as Al-Shabaab – categorised as a terrorist organisation by the UN and other international bodies (UN Security Council, 2024) - and clan based, often ethnic divisions in socio-political policy and ideology. The country’s government is centralised around Mogadishu but holds a fragile authority beyond the city boundaries where clan-based divisions and local power struggles have eroded public trust in governmental institutions and deepened conflict dynamics (Ogallo et al., 2018).
It is evident that the relationship between climate and conflict in Somalia not merely coincidental. Whilst climate does not directly cause conflict mechanisms, a stark climate conflict nexus has arisen whereby climate stress intensifies competition over scarce resources such as water and pasture (Warsame et al., 2021). Droughts and erratic rainfall patterns have intensified competitions that pressure inter-clan tensions which triggers localised violence. Further to this, extreme weather events frequently heighten both inter and intra state displacement (Ogallo et al., 2018). Humanitarian emergencies such as these often stretch local capacities and fuels grievances towards the central government. These factors worsen security conditions for both intra-community insecurity and wider national and transnational concerns as well as limiting access to aid, creating a feedback loop of vulnerability and instability.
This report will explore the multifaceted relationship between climate change and conflict in Somalia. It will develop to discuss the strategic implications of this nexus, outlining key challenges and risks of the climate-conflict dichotomy as well as identifying and expanding on key actors and recommendations to develop environmental and security stabilisation. Understanding this interlinking crisis is essential for designing more effective interventions and achieving lasting intra and inter state stability.
Key Actors and Stakeholders
Addressing the complex relationship between the climate and conflict in Somalia requires a coordinated approach involving a wide range of actors, both governmental and non-state. Each provides a critical role in shaping outcomes.
Government of Somalia: At the national level, the Government of Somalia is central to developing and implementing climate adaptation and conflict resolution strategies (Federal Government of Somalia, 2022). Key ministries such as the ministry of environment and climate change and the ministry of agriculture are responsible for direct policy implementation and resource management as well as assisting in local governance. However, outside of the urban centres, reach is often limited due to under-resourcing in local administrations that are essential for delivering and mediating services across the country.
International Organisations: Multilateral and international bodies play a large role in development and governance within Somalia (UNEP, 2024). Agencies such as the UN environmental programme, the UN development fund and the African Union provide a wealth of practical and technical expertise, funding assistance and coordination control. Key financial donors such as the European Union and numerous NGOs are also heavily involved in humanitarian aid, climate adaptation policies and peacebuilding incentives.
Local Communities: Within regional and local areas, communities and traditional clan structures are pivotal for mediation and governance strategies. These communities, usually structured in historically traditional manners, often lead on the ground resource management and conflict mediation, highlighting how vital their role is in long term implementation of solutions (Ayal et al., 2022). Their inclusion in formal government processes is vital for legitimacy and sustainability across communities nationally.
Strategic Implications
Security Dynamics: The intersection of climate and security in Somalia presents a challenge to stability, both nationally and regionally. The appeal of extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab often runs in direct correlation to environmental stress, especially among youths in drought stricken and marginalised groups (UNDP, 2025). Lack of state support and livelihood opportunities leads vulnerable communities to view non-state actors as a stable source of income and protection as well as developing a standing of social status. These groups often use tactics to this regard, exploiting local grievances, especially those linked to scarcity and neglect, to bolster their ranks and expand sphere of influence (Eklöw and Krampe, 2019). Furthermore, in rural areas, diminishing resources such as grazing land and water lead to exacerbated competition which can trigger inter-clan violence. As pastoral communities are displaced into new territories due to land degradation or drought, longstanding clan boundaries are changed (Ahmed, 2024). This often leads to conflict. Local clashes can further escalate in the absence of effective governmental and social mediation and this lack of governance mechanisms leads to further undermined security.
Governance and State Legitimacy: The Somali government, whilst making progress in recent years, continues to struggle with limited capacity and reach outside of the boundaries of Mogadishu. There are immense challenges faced in relation to managing natural resources in the wake of climate crisis as well as solving the local and national disputes that arise as a result. The inability to provide stable and prolonged governance in climate affected areas weakens government legitimacy and often creates a vacuum which often invites non-state actors to take advantage of unstable power dynamics (Eklöw and Krampe, 2019). This also increase dependence on external international partners and foreign investors which tend to prioritise counterterrorism and financially beneficial projects over long term climate resilience. This imbalance, therefore, risks addressing the symptoms of insecurity whilst neglecting its root cause.
Regional Spillover Risks: Moreover, climate induced displacement has many cross-border implications. As Somali communities are forced to flee environmental disasters and the subsequent unstable fallout, they often seek refuge in neighbouring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia (Burns, 2017). This movement can place severe strain on stretched resources in these countries and heighten tensions in relationships between governments and individual communities, especially in border host regions (Burns, 2017). This leads to further destabilisation of regional dynamics and could cause internal regional conflict if left unaddressed.
Challenges and Risks
Somalia faces a series of deeply interconnected crisis that compound one another to hinder effective response. Climate change, armed conflict, food insecurity and public health crisis’ do not exist in isolation; rather, they reinforce and amplify one another (Burns, 2017). A clear example of this is recurrent droughts reducing agricultural output and livestock viability contributing directly to instability with food supply and public health concerns. In turn, food insecurity triggers local tensions, increased displacement and places the population at higher risk to extremist recruitment. This cascade of events put strain on already precarious health systems which increases chances of public health pandemics, especially in overpopulated displacement camps with limited access to medical care and clean water (Warsame, 2021).
It is evident that the operational environment in Somalia presents a significant challenge to the government and wider humanitarian actors in tackling and solving climate related conflict. Many regions in Somalia most effected by climate change are also sites which are in active conflict or under the control of armed groups (Broek and Hodder, 2022). Emergency relief and long-term adaptation to climate resilience is therefore impeded in these areas due to limited or no access, which complicated logistical aid and infrastructural change.
Another critical barrier in play is the lack of consistent and reliable data in isolated or militia-controlled regions. Accurate information on weather patterns, land degradation and displacement trends are sparse due to localised conflict and lack of funding (Burns, 2017). Without this robust data, early warning systems and targeted intervention become difficult to design and therefore there is a significant lack of evaluation on the impact of climate related mechanisms. The absence of integrated monitoring tools limits coordination between development, peacebuilding and humanitarian actors which mitigates holistic approaches.
These challenges highlight the need for urgent and universal approaches to recognise and solve the interconnected nature of Somalia’s crises. Without seeking mechanism to address these overlapping issues in tandem, efforts to build resilience to climate matters and reduce conflict holistically will fall short, leaving the most affected communities in the cycle of vulnerability.
Opportunities and Recommendations
Despite the challenges posed by the climate conflict nexus, there are significant opportunities to strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability through sustainable governance. However, these opportunities require integrated and context sensitive approaches that facilitate bridging gaps between climate adaptation, peacebuilding, and development.
Strengthening Local Governance and Conflict Resolution Mechanisms: Investing in the capacity of local governments and traditional authorities is critical. Many conflicts over resources occur at the community level and are mediated through customary systems without the backing or support of the national government. However, increasing integration with these practices and supporting local dispute resolution frameworks, such as clan elders and councils, can help prevent violence and reinforce social cohesion. Enhancing coordination between traditional structures and formal institutions will improve legitimacy and service delivery.
Increase Climate Adaptation and Early Warning Systems: Through expanding community-based adaptation projects such as water harvesting, drought-resistant crops, and sustainable grazing management, environmental pressures that lead to conflict can be reduced. Investment in early warning systems that combine meteorological data with conflict risk indicators will enable more proactive responses to crises (Russo, 2022). Mobile technology and local knowledge should be integrated into these systems for effectiveness and accessibility within existing structures of governance. Furthermore, investing in environmental and conflict monitoring infrastructure is essential. Satellite imagery, community-based reporting, and partnerships with local structures of governance improves situational awareness. In addition, establishing a centralized platform for sharing data among humanitarian, development, and government actors enhances coordination and evidence-based planning.
Integrate Climate Considerations into Peace-Building and Development Programs: Mainstream climate risk analysis and interventions by international donors and implementing partners should focus on security, health, and economic recovery as well as direct goals to tackle climate change (Russo, 2022). Projects that simultaneously address environmental degradation and social tensions deliver dual benefits for peace and resilience. Projects such as shared resource management between communities will assist in integrating climate management with development and intra-state peacebuilding mechanisms. Furthermore, whilst security assistance remains vital, intra and international actors must balance counterterrorism efforts with investments in sustainable development and climate resilience. A more coherent, multi-sectoral approach, co-designed by Somali stakeholders as well as international actors, will be essential for breaking the cycle of crisis.
In addition, women, youth, and marginalized groups often experience the impacts of climate change and conflict most acutely, yet are underrepresented in decision-making (UNDP, 2025). Empowering these groups through education, livelihood support, and leadership training not only builds resilience but also strengthens social cohesion and peacebuilding efforts. Promoting this inclusive participation, especially in a gender sensitive approach, will only seek to develop a more sustainable and holistic programme for long term change.
Conclusion
The relationship between climate change and conflict in Somalia is complex and often deeply rooted in structural vulnerabilities which leads to its cyclical nature. Environmental shocks do not act in isolation; they intersect with poverty and ongoing insecurity to intensify competition over resources, displace communities, and erode livelihoods. These stressors, in turn, create fertile ground for extremist recruitment, inter-clan violence, and humanitarian crises, further reinforcing Somalia’s fragility.
Yet within this web of challenges lies the potential for meaningful and transformative action. Strengthening local governance, empowering communities, and integrating climate resilience into peacebuilding strategies can help break the cycle of vulnerability. International actors must shift from short-term, security-centric interventions to long-term, adaptive approaches that build institutional capacity and community resilience.
As a result, Somalia stands at a critical juncture. As climate impacts intensify in the wake on ongoing global change, the need for coordinated and inclusive strategies has never been more urgent. By investing in the right areas, Somalia and its extra-state partners can begin to forge a more stable and sustainable future. As a result, addressing the complexities surrounding the climate conflict nexus is not only a development imperative, but a pathway toward lasting peace and resilience.